宝城期货煤焦早报-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke futures are "oscillation", while the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy. For coking coal, due to the loose supply situation and limited short - term macro - upward driving force, the futures price is under pressure. For coke, although the short - term demand is acceptable, there is an increasing expectation of a phased peak in demand, and the drag from the coking coal cost side also affects the price [1][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that the fundamentals are dragging down, and coking coal continues to bottom out [1]. - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that there is an expectation of a peak in demand, and coke is operating weakly [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - Price Performance: On the night of April 29, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, breaking through the previous low, with a 1.71% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 920.0 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply Situation: From March to April, the safety supervision environment of coal mines in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the production maintained a high level. In March, the raw coal production in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, the coal production in Shanxi continued to operate at a high level, expected to still record a year - on - year positive growth. In addition, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March [5]. - Market Outlook: The continuous growth of coking coal production and the high - level operation of imports put pressure on prices. Coupled with limited short - term macro - upward driving force, coking coal futures will continue to operate weakly [5]. 3.2.2 Coke (J) - Price Performance: On the night of April 29, the main coke contract continued to decline, approaching the previous low, with a 0.68% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 1542.5 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply - Demand Situation: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was relatively obvious. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level oscillatory operation [6]. - Influencing Factors: There are still strong macro - disturbances. On the one hand, the Sino - US trade friction has been repeated in April, and there is still strong uncertainty about the future development of the tariff dispute. On the other hand, China's domestic demand boosting policies are expected to be introduced soon. The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6]. - Market Outlook: Although the short - term demand for coke is acceptable, as the "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end and steel mill profits are shrinking, the expectation of a phased peak in coke demand is increasing. Coupled with the drag from the coking coal cost side, coke futures will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic domestic demand boosting policies [6].