能源化工日报-20250430

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The PVC market is in a state of over - supply and weak demand, with a bearish outlook. It is dominated by the macro - situation, and its valuation is low. The market is in a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and oscillating trend. Concerns include delivery volume, inventory, alumina production, exports, and maintenance scale [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Attention should be paid to the later stage of the tapping season [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and high daily output. Currently, the demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. After the festival, attention should be paid to the sowing progress of crops [6]. - The methanol market has a reduction in domestic supply, stable downstream demand, and a differentiation between domestic and port inventories. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure, weak downstream demand, and neutral inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, port incidents, and tariff issues [9]. Group 3: Summary by Product PVC - On April 29, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4,949 yuan/ton (- 40). The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the export is restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has been reduced, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 29, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton (- 10). The inventory has decreased slightly but is still high. There is support for exports, and the supply is sufficient, with demand growth limited [3]. Rubber - On April 29, the rubber market oscillated. The new rubber supply is expected to increase, and the tire start - up rate fluctuates. The inventory in China is accumulating. The sample enterprise utilization rate of semi - steel tires is 72.36% (down 1.84 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 65.79% (down 1.65 percentage points) [4][5]. Urea - The urea main contract fell 2.09% to close at 1,735 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the daily output is at a high level. The demand for compound fertilizers is weak, and the industrial demand is rising. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract fell 0.96% to close at 2,278 yuan/ton. The device utilization rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory shows a differentiation between domestic and port areas [7][8]. Plastic - On April 29, the plastic main contract fell 0.60% to close at 7,122 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is neutral. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [9].