Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic and overseas markets are affected by various factors such as policies, economic data, and trade situations during the May Day holiday. Different asset classes face different opportunities and risks, with most markets expected to show a certain degree of volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated the possibility of introducing incremental policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to whether these policies are implemented. - Overseas economic data releases and changes in US trade policy signals during the May Day holiday may cause significant fluctuations in overseas markets, which could impact the domestic market. - The domestic travel, tourism, and consumption situation during the May Day holiday should be monitored to see if it meets expectations [1]. Overseas Macro - The US is currently sending signals of trade relaxation, but new trade policy signals need to be watched for their impact on the market. - The release of Q1 GDP data in Europe and the US, as well as US April non - farm payrolls and PMI data during the May Day holiday, will have an impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and may also lead to concerns about the US economic stagflation risk [2]. Stock Index - The A - share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points. It shows strong resilience due to factors such as increased external demand pressure, the implementation of domestic policies, and support from capital market policies. - However, the domestic fundamental driving force is insufficient, and there are still disturbances from US tariff policies and performance disclosures. The index is expected to fluctuate within a range. - During the May Day holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of new US trade policy signals and European and American economic data on the domestic stock market [3]. Gold/Silver - With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the potential for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals face high - level adjustment risks. - However, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, the low - level operation of the US dollar index and US Treasury real yields provide some support for precious metals. - Economic data releases during the May Day holiday may bring uncertainties to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which will affect precious metal prices [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel market has stopped falling during the May Day holiday, supported by expectations of crude steel reduction and macro - policy strengthening, but is still suppressed by overseas negative factors and shows a range - bound trend. - There are many risk factors during the holiday, including the possibility of repeated overseas trade conflicts and the release of US economic data, as well as the impact of seasonal consumption changes in the steel market [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of crude steel reduction. The movement of Singapore swaps during the holiday will have a greater impact on post - holiday prices. - Although the current steel mill profits are good and iron ore shipments are increasing, if the weak demand for steel continues, iron ore prices may decline in May [6]. Coking Coal/Coke - Coke and coking coal have continued their weak trend, with the second round of coke price increases failing. - As the downstream steel demand enters the off - season and the supply of coking coal remains high, the demand for coking coal and coke will continue to be weak after the holiday [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - High tariffs will have a long - term negative impact on the global economy, and domestic policies are more focused on service consumption. - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, but domestic smelting production is high. The demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited upside potential in the medium term. During the holiday, attention should be paid to US economic data and tariff negotiations, and partial profit - taking of long positions is recommended [8]. Aluminum - There is a lot of news about tariffs, and the US may reduce tariffs on China in the short term. - The production profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and production is at a high level. Demand is better than expected, and inventory is decreasing. - Considering the release of US economic data and new tariff news during the holiday, it is recommended to gradually close long positions in batches [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is affected by the possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and the import volume is expected to remain high. - The demand for tin is polarized, with strong demand for solder. The inventory decline has slowed down. - Tin prices may rebound in the short term, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions before the holiday [9][10]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term price drivers are limited, and the supply - demand situation is currently good. There is a possibility of a rebound, but attention should be paid to macro data and the progress of various negotiations. - The strategy of short - term long and long - term short remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the holiday [11]. Asphalt - The main risk lies in the crude oil market. Although the transfer of inventory from factories to the social market is smooth, supply is expected to increase in the future. - Short - term demand is not in the peak season, and there is a risk of over - supply. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control [11]. PX - PX prices rose due to a small squeeze in PTA, but there has been no substantial change in supply and demand. The PXN remains stable. - The PTA maintenance plan may change, and there is a possibility of negative feedback in the polyester market during the holiday. It is recommended to increase the risk - control level [12]. PTA - The basis has declined significantly before the holiday, and the near - end price has difficulty rising. After the May Day holiday, the downstream may reduce production, and the inventory reduction may slow down. - Attention should be paid to the impact of negative feedback from downstream factories on PTA prices [13][14]. Ethylene Glycol - Coal prices remain low, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol production capacity has recovered. The downstream may reduce production during the holiday, and inventory may accumulate. - Negative feedback may be transmitted to the upstream raw material end, and ethylene glycol may continue to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to risk control before the holiday [14]. Short - fiber - Demand is weak, and the downstream may increase the holiday time. Overseas orders have limited impact on domestic demand, and the short - fiber market will continue to be weak. Long positions should be held with caution during the holiday [14]. Methanol - The supply is lower than expected, and inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday restocking. However, future supply is expected to increase, which will suppress prices. - Attention should be paid to abnormal fluctuations in crude oil or the macro - economy during the holiday, and light positions are recommended. The impact of the Iranian port explosion also needs to be monitored [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 continues to decline slightly, and upstream maintenance has begun. Although the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, there may be negative demand feedback in the long term. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - The PE downstream is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking provides some support. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has risen slightly. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [17]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The premium of soybean meal futures over spot has declined in advance. The price of US soybeans provides support for soybean meal futures. - During the May Day holiday, the US soybean market is affected by weather and policy news, and the short - term decline space of the soybean meal 09 contract may be limited. It is recommended to reduce short - position risk exposure [18]. Edible Oils - The domestic edible oil fundamentals are relatively stable, but the unstable rise of US soybean oil driven by policy expectations is the main factor affecting cross - holiday fluctuations. - Domestic edible oils are in the process of inventory reduction, but there are still problems such as high inventory of some varieties. The US soybean oil is less likely to break through the 50 - cent/lb pressure before the second - quarter US biodiesel policy is implemented. - The market is uncertain during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold positions [18]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure in May is not urgent, and the spot price is expected to be stable in the range of 14 - 15 yuan/kg. The price difference across the holiday may be relatively small. - The futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend [19]. Corn - The expected corn imports for this crop year are likely to be reduced, and the supply - demand balance will be tightened. The C09 contract has strong support. - Weather conditions after the May Day holiday may affect the grain market. The corn futures have risen strongly, but there are differences between the futures and spot markets, and the market uncertainty is high. It is recommended to reduce positions and re - plan after the holiday [20].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250430
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-04-30 02:17