五矿期货农产品早报-20250430

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and soybean meal market has a strong inventory accumulation trend in the next three months, with domestic soybean meal spot prices expected to gradually decline, and far - month contracts to fluctuate. The price of soybeans to China has a stable - to - rising trend, but trade - war - induced macro - weakness may suppress prices [3][5]. - The palm oil market is currently supported by low inventory and improved high - frequency exports in April, but may face a lack of upward momentum due to increased seasonal supply. If the macro - economy stabilizes, the oil market may be supported by the demand for increased RVO in the US [7][9]. - The short - term sugar price trend is volatile. Although Brazil has entered the new crushing season, the low shipping volume and high raw - refined sugar spread do not necessarily lead to a decline in raw sugar prices. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running strong in the short term but shows signs of weakening [11][12]. - The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to continue to fluctuate. The impact of the news of potential tariff reduction on cotton prices is limited, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and domestic inventory changes [14][15]. - The egg price may be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short - sell [17][18]. - The short - term pig price fluctuates little, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds due to factors such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stocking [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Important Information: Domestic soybean meal spot prices continued to fall on Tuesday. MYSTEEL estimates that 9.1975 million tons of soybeans will arrive in May, 11 million tons in June, and 10.5 million tons in July. The soybean meal inventory was at a low level last week, and downstream buyers are cautious. The US soybean production area will have more rainfall in the southwest in the next two weeks, and China's soybean imports mainly rely on Brazil [3]. - Trading Strategy: The cost of the 05 soybean meal contract is in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and that of the 09 and other far - month contracts is in the range of 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The short - term price of US soybeans is under pressure but has strong support. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to be stable, with a mid - term upward trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices are likely to fall, and far - month contracts will fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - Important Information: ITS and AMSPEC predict that the export of Malaysian palm oil increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in April. The Advanced Biofuels Association urged the EPA to increase the RVO in 2026 to 575 million gallons. The domestic spot basis is oscillating [7]. - Trading Strategy: If palm oil production recovers significantly and the crude oil price center falls, the oil market will be bearish. In the short term, palm oil is supported by improved exports and low inventory, but it may lack upward momentum. In the medium term, if the macro - economy stabilizes, the oil market may be supported by the demand for increased RVO [9]. Sugar - Important Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell on Tuesday. The 2025/26 sugarcane production in Brazil is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% reduction from the previous year, due to adverse weather conditions in 2024 [11]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term sugar price trend is volatile. Brazil's low shipping volume and high raw - refined sugar spread do not necessarily lead to a decline in raw sugar prices. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running strong in the short term but shows signs of weakening [12]. Cotton - Important Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell on Tuesday. As of April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week, slightly faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [14]. - Trading Strategy: The news of potential tariff reduction has limited impact on cotton prices. The domestic cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and domestic inventory changes [15]. Eggs - Important Information: Domestic egg prices are mainly falling, with sufficient supply and lukewarm demand. Some areas have surplus inventory, and traders are cautious [17]. - Trading Strategy: After the previous cost - driven rebound, the support for egg prices is insufficient. As the supply increases, it is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short - sell [18]. Pigs - Important Information: Domestic pig prices are mainly falling, with limited short - term fluctuations. Most areas are restricted by demand, and the pig - price increase sentiment of farmers has weakened [20]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term pig price fluctuates little, but the pressure accumulates due to the increase in pig weight. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds due to factors such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stocking [21].