大越期货纯碱早报-20250430

Report Overview - The report focuses on the soda ash market, analyzing its fundamentals, price trends, and influencing factors to provide insights for investment decisions [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a supply-demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on the day was 1376 yuan/ton, the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -31 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.88%, 1.13%, and -8.82% respectively compared to the previous value [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] - The profit of the heavy soda ash combined alkali method in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia-alkali method in North China was -62.50 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.44%, showing a stable recovery [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, a decline from the historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual production of 60 tons in 2025 [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [24] - The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline at 75.85%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production increased to 9.1 tons, and production showed signs of stabilization [30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which was at a historically high level [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report presented the supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply-demand differences over the years [34] Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level; the cold repair of float glass downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak; the escalation of Sino-US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro pessimistic sentiment [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has continued to decline, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply-demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]