国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Risk preference is rising [2] - Silver: Stabilizing and rebounding [2] - Copper: Decreasing inventory supports prices [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Significantly declining [2] - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, short - term sideways movement [2] - Lead: Weak demand, facing upward pressure [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces are converging, nickel prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, with cost and negative feedback on the disk in a game [2] - Tin: Slightly recovering [2] - Industrial silicon: The disk is weakly oscillating [2] - Polysilicon: Registered warehouse receipts are slightly increasing [2] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously increasing, and the disk is under pressure [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 785.14 with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a decrease of 0.29%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 8215 with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 8226.00 with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased by 86,169 ounces, while the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 161,950 ounces [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3.2 Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 77740 with an increase of 0.18%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,842 tons, and the inventory of LME copper decreased by 300 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and some spot spreads changed [9]. - Macro and Industry News: India may be among the first to sign a trade agreement with the US. US economic data is poor. China's March 2025 scrap copper imports decreased. Peru's Antamina mine stopped work due to an accident. The output of Chile's Codelco increased slightly in Q1. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19930, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2766. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of aluminum and alumina contracts changed. The processing fees of aluminum rods in some regions changed slightly [12]. - Trend Intensity: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. 3.4 Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22550 with a daily increase of 0.13%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 1775 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [15]. - News: US economic data is poor, the US dollar index rebounded [16]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. 3.5 Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16895 with a decrease of 0.65%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 427 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 3750 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [18]. - News: The US trade agreement hope boosted the US stock market [19]. - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [19]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 124,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,720. The trading volume, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed. The production capacity of an Indonesian nickel - iron project is recovering, and Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates of nickel products [21][22]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]. 3.7 Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 261,560 with a daily increase of 0.38%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 116 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 180 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [25]. - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The closing price of Si2506 was 8,540, and the closing price of PS2506 was 37,320. The trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts changed. The prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain changed [29]. - News: Longi Green Energy's 12GW high - efficiency BC battery project in Xi'an is progressing [31]. - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts of lithium carbonate decreased. Warehouse receipts increased. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts decreased. Some spreads and premiums changed [33]. - News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Some listed battery companies announced their Q1 results [33][35]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]