Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but current Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution as the Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. After event shocks, the Chinese economy and Chinese assets will still operate according to their own laws. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken, while paying attention to position management [16]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [17]. - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - entry opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - sellers of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom range [20]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to take a short - biased operation on the main contract [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it should be treated with a sideways trading mindset [26][28]. - For natural rubber, the price is expected to maintain a weak sideways trend [29][30]. - For PVC, the price is expected to maintain a bottom - sideways trend [31][33]. - For urea, the price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, it is expected to follow the cost side for sideways adjustment, and interval trading is recommended [36][37]. - For PTA, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [38]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [39][40]. - For staple fiber, it will follow the cost side for short - term sideways adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the cost side for sideways movement, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, the market will continue to be weak in the short term [45]. - For glass, the market sentiment is expected to be dominated by weakness [46]. - For caustic soda, the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is likely to weaken slightly in the short term [48]. - For pulp, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the market is pessimistic [49][50]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to be weak [51]. - For copper, the price trend is expected to be strong, and a long - biased operation on the main contract is recommended [53][54]. - For tin, the price is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and risk control is necessary [55]. - For nickel, short - term risk control is necessary, and cautious waiting and watching are recommended [56][57]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the fundamentals remain weak, and a bearish outlook is maintained [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal, and investors can focus on out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. - For cotton, after a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. - For apples, after a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. - For live pigs, after taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. - For eggs, investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. - For corn and corn starch, it is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price has a weak support for the futures price [81][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 120 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11% [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are low. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, and it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - The volatility is expected to increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. As of the end of March, the custody balance of overseas institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan [8][9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures rising. In Q1 2025, the domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, and the gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year - on - year [11]. - The long - term value of gold is optimistic, and investors should wait for long - entry opportunities as the long - term upward logic remains strong [11][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillating. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillating. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply support the price. The valuation is high, and there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures continuing to correct. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is improving slightly. There may be short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures falling. The supply of manganese ore is disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. There may be opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil dropping significantly. Market concerns about OPEC's production increase and other factors put pressure on the price. A short - biased operation is recommended [21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil dropping significantly following crude oil. The Asian fuel oil market may strengthen, but there are still supply and demand issues. A short - biased operation is recommended [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw synthetic rubber futures falling. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to trade sideways [26][28]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw natural rubber futures falling. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to be weak [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day saw PVC futures falling. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [31][33]. Urea - The previous trading day saw urea futures falling. The agricultural demand will decline seasonally in May, and the supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [34][35]. PX - The previous trading day saw PX futures falling. The PX load decreases slightly, and the downstream PTA start - up rate increases. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to follow the cost side for adjustment [36][37]. PTA - The previous trading day saw PTA futures falling. The PTA load increases, and the polyester load rises slightly. The cost support is insufficient, and the price is expected to trade sideways [38]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw ethylene glycol futures oscillating. The coal - based plants are restarting, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to trade sideways at the bottom [39][40]. Short Fiber - The previous trading day saw short - fiber futures rising. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It will follow the cost side for adjustment [41]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw bottle - chip futures falling. The raw material price is under pressure, and the supply and demand fundamentals lack driving force. The price is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw soda ash futures rising slightly. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [43][45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw glass futures falling. The production line is at a low level, and the inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw caustic soda futures falling. The production of downstream alumina is fluctuating, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to weaken slightly [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw pulp futures falling. The inventory accumulates, and the supply increases rapidly. The market is pessimistic [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw lithium carbonate futures falling. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [51]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper oscillating slightly. The spot market is stable, and the price is expected to be strong. A long - biased operation is recommended [52][54]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin futures falling slightly. The supply is affected by various factors, and the demand is good. The price is expected to trade sideways in the short term [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw nickel futures falling slightly. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand may weaken. Short - term risk control is necessary [56][57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon futures falling significantly. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be weak [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures falling. The US soybean planting rate is slightly faster, and the Brazilian soybean is in a record - high harvest. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean meal and focus on out - of - the money call options on soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw palm oil futures falling. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase, and the export is growing. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day saw rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures falling. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Investors can consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [63][64]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures falling slightly. The US cotton planting rate is increasing, and the Chinese textile export is weak. After a rebound, short - selling of far - month contracts at high prices is recommended [65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures oscillating. The Brazilian sugar is starting to be squeezed, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and watch [68][70]. Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures oscillating. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. After a pullback, long - entry at low prices is recommended [72][74]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw live - pig futures falling. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. After taking profits, investors should wait and watch [75][76]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw egg futures rising slightly. The egg production is increasing, and the cost is high. Investors can focus on reverse spread opportunities [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day saw corn and corn starch futures rising slightly. The US corn planting rate is normal, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily [79][80]. Logs - The previous trading day saw log futures falling. The arrival of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is relatively stable. The market has no obvious driving force [81][83].
早间评论-20250430
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-30 02:34