华联控股：业绩承压，关注旧改与转型节奏-20250430

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 430 million RMB, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40 million RMB, down 50% year-on-year, aligning with the earnings forecast [1][2] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a significant contraction in the real estate sales business due to slow project liquidation, while the rental business has shown resilience [2][3] - The company holds two urban renewal projects in Shenzhen, which are expected to positively impact future performance as the market recovers and urban village renovations accelerate [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's real estate sales revenue plummeted to 114,300 RMB, a 99% decrease year-on-year, contributing to a drop in total revenue [2] - The rental business generated 290 million RMB, a 4% increase year-on-year, while hotel revenue decreased by 15% to 140 million RMB, resulting in a total revenue decline of 3% [2] Urban Renewal Projects - The company is preparing for the pre-sale of the "Yupin Luanshan" project in October 2025, which is anticipated to enhance future earnings [3] - The "Hualian Nanshan A District" project is still in the early planning stages, and the company has access to substantial urban renewal resources through its affiliate, Hengyu Group [3] New Growth Points - The company has successfully launched a new production line for enriched materials in Zhuhai, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4] - A share buyback program has been initiated, with a total of 80.12 million shares to be canceled, amounting to approximately 250 million RMB, aimed at enhancing shareholder value [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted to 80 million RMB for 2025 and 90 million RMB for 2026, reflecting a decrease of 22% and 18% respectively [5] - The target price is set at 3.83 RMB, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.1x, considering the potential catalysts from market recovery and urban renewal initiatives [5][9]