镍及不锈钢05月报：超跌反弹，镍价重返震荡区间-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices rebounded after an over - decline and returned to the oscillation range. In May, the price may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For options, selling deep out - of - the - money options in the range is advised [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to decline with oscillations. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Nickel - In April, nickel prices experienced a roller - coaster ride. LME nickel prices dropped 14.5% in 4 trading days due to US tariffs. Domestic nickel prices had a gap - down due to the Tomb - sweeping Festival, but then rebounded. The rebound was due to its large elasticity, the implementation of Indonesia's new policy increasing production costs, and the decline in MHP output [4]. - In early April, domestic nickel supply was tight, with Jinchuan nickel premiums rising above 3,000 yuan/ton and import losses narrowing. However, after mid - April, spot demand weakened. In May, nickel ore shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines may increase, and downstream prices may decline, leading to a price game between upstream and downstream. Pure nickel supply is expected to increase slightly in May, while demand may decline slightly but still show a stable - to - rising trend due to the peak season [5]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - In April, stainless steel prices fell after nickel prices dropped. The decline was less than that of nickel. The procurement price of NPI fell below 1,000 yuan/nickel point, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. On the demand side, tariffs may affect exports, and the export production schedule of white goods may decline after May. On the supply side, some large steel mills reduced production or switched production in April, and partial复产 is expected in May [11]. 3.2 Market and Raw Materials 3.2.1 Pure Nickel Market - As of April 25, global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1,096 tons compared to the end of March. LME inventories increased by 3,546 tons, while SHFE inventories decreased by 7,338 tons. Domestic spot imports had a reduced loss, and the spot market premium strengthened. China's refined nickel imports increased significantly in January and then returned to normal levels. Exports were mainly to Asian countries and regions. In April, net exports were expected to decrease further [16]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Market - After the decline in nickel prices in April, stainless steel prices also fell. The NPI procurement price dropped, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. Stainless steel prices oscillated downward in the game between production cuts by steel mills and tariff impacts [22]. 3.2.3 Indonesia's Nickel Policy - Indonesia's new nickel policy took effect on April 26, 2025. The nickel ore royalty rate increased from 10% to 14% (for nickel prices below $18,000), and the ice - nickel royalty rate increased from 2% to 3.5%. The new policy increased the production cost of NPI and high - grade nickel ice, but some smelters are still in the tax - exemption period. The implementation of the policy may lead to a loosening of nickel ore prices in May if the annual quota approval does not change significantly [23][24]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - In May, nickel iron prices fell, and nickel iron plants faced production pressure and may cut production to force nickel ore prices down. China and Indonesia's combined nickel iron production from January to March increased by 20% year - on - year, with Indonesia's production increasing by 25%. In April, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased slightly [36]. 3.2.5 Chromium - based Raw Materials Market - Chromium ore prices have been rising for 2 months, and the cost support for high - carbon ferrochrome has increased. With high stainless steel production schedules, the demand for ferrochrome from steel mills is strong, leading to price increases. In April, the long - term procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group for May increased by 500 yuan compared to the previous month [43]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate Market - For ternary cathode factories with a high export proportion, orders from South Korea decreased in April. Ternary cathode factories focusing on the domestic market were less affected. Nickel sulfate prices have been slightly declining since April, indicating weak demand [55]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.3.1 Pure Nickel - Overseas nickel companies' Q1 reports showed that Vale's nickel production increased, while Norilsk Nickel's production decreased slightly. SMM statistics showed that China's refined nickel production from January to March increased by 26% year - on - year, and it is expected to remain stable in April. In May, supply is expected to remain high, while demand may decline after June. The domestic refined nickel market is in surplus, and the surplus has been transferred to LME inventories. However, with the recovery of domestic demand, imports are expected to increase [60][61]. 3.3.2 Stainless Steel - The market is worried about tariffs, which has led to a decline in market confidence. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. Domestically, policies aim to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. From January to April 2024, the combined stainless steel production of China and Indonesia increased by 11% year - on - year. Currently, some steel mills have production reduction plans, but overall production remains high. The demand for stainless steel is the key factor affecting the market, and a lack of demand may lead to a negative feedback loop [68][83]. 3.3.3 New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 20% year - on - year but decreased by 11% month - on - month. The global new energy vehicle sales from January to February 2025 increased by 33.7% year - on - year. The growth rate in Europe and the US has slowed down. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to March increased by 43% year - on - year. After April, the overseas new energy vehicle market may be affected by the trade war, and high cobalt prices may suppress the demand for ternary batteries [87][96]. 3.3.4 Differentiation of Primary Nickel and Pure Nickel Supply - Demand - In April, the supply - demand of refined nickel in China remained basically unchanged, and inventories increased slowly. The WBMS report showed a global refined nickel supply surplus of 0.83 million tons from January to February 2025. After May, supply will remain high, while demand may decline from the peak season to the off - season. Nickel prices may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan [110].