新兴铸管：钢铁行业利润走阔致业绩环比改善-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The steel industry is experiencing improved profitability, leading to a sequential improvement in the company's performance for Q1 2025. The company reported revenue of 8.375 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.11%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 137 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decrease of 19.84% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 143.36% [1][2] - The company is actively pursuing cost-saving measures and enhancing the differentiation and high-end nature of its casting pipe products. It is also increasing its market share in new products and markets, while steadily raising the proportion of special steel products [2] - The report indicates that the steel industry's supply-side optimization is gradually approaching, which is expected to further improve profitability in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's total operating costs decreased by 10.74% year-on-year, which is greater than the revenue decline of 8.21%. This resulted in an increase in the sales gross margin by 2.77 percentage points to 7.61%. The net profit margin also increased by 6.81 percentage points to 1.83% due to improvements in various period expenses [2] - The report forecasts the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.18, 0.24, and 0.26 RMB respectively, with book value per share (BVPS) projected at 6.57, 6.74, and 6.90 RMB [4] Market Conditions - The average sales profit margin for key enterprises in the steel industry was 0.71% in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.63 percentage points. The government has been emphasizing strict control over steel production to prevent excessive competition, indicating a potential restart of supply-side optimization [3] - The report predicts that the global iron ore production capacity will continue to expand in 2025, which may lead to a further decline in iron ore prices and an overall recovery in steel industry profits [3] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 3.98 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 0.61X for 2025, which is higher than the average PE of comparable companies at 0.52X [4][8]