棉花：需求仍然不乐观

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for cotton remains unoptimistic. Domestic cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, the cotton yarn market is weak, textile enterprises lack confidence, and the开机 rate is expected to decline. ICE cotton futures continue to fall due to the shift of market focus to the demand - side and pessimistic demand prospects [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 12,840 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.85%, and 12,790 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.39%. CY2507 closed at 18,820 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.53%, and 18,805 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.08%. ICE US cotton 07 closed at 66.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 1.48%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,332 lots, a decrease of 20,570 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 758,554 lots, a decrease of 2,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 4,312 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,855 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,838, an increase of 359 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,558, a decrease of 402. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.97 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.61% from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, with some orders placed around the CF09 contract at 12,800. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is at CF09 + 1200 - 1300 for self - pickup in inland warehouses [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is weak. Textile enterprises lack confidence, downstream only makes rigid - demand purchases, the quotes of textile enterprises remain stable, but some offer cash discounts. More textile enterprises are reducing production, and the operating rate is expected to decline further [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton continued to fall yesterday. Due to the improvement of weather conditions in US cotton - growing areas, the market focus shifted back to the demand side, and ICE cotton futures continued to decline based on the pessimistic demand outlook [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]