Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the second - fattening of pigs started after the spot price stopped falling, and the state reserve rotation supported the downstream. The spot price in April still had support, and the near - month contracts traded based on the logic of closing the basis last week. However, the enthusiasm for high - price procurement in the second - fattening has cooled down, the price spread between fat and lean pigs is inverted, the sale of piglets by large farms has decreased, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and the phased destocking has begun, weakening the sentiment of near - month contracts. The macro sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread of far - month contracts, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price is 15590 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2] - Futures Prices: The price of the LH2505 contract is 14000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2507 contract is 13450 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2509 contract is 13930 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the LH2505 contract is 1661 lots, down 1173 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest is 2419 lots, down 803 lots compared with the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2507 contract is 6864 lots, up 1633 lots, and the open interest is 32520 lots, down 630 lots; the trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 39001 lots, up 11526 lots, and the open interest is 72948 lots, down 421 lots [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of the LH2505 contract is 750 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2507 contract is 1300 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2509 contract is 820 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the 5 - 7 spread is 550 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread is - 480 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton [2] 2. Market Logic - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the second - fattening of pigs started after the spot price stopped falling, and the state reserve rotation supported the downstream. The spot price in April still had support, and the near - month contracts traded based on the logic of closing the basis last week. However, the enthusiasm for high - price procurement in the second - fattening has cooled down, the price spread between fat and lean pigs is inverted, the sale of piglets by large farms has decreased, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and the phased destocking has begun, weakening the sentiment of near - month contracts. The macro sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread of far - month contracts, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]
生猪：阶段性去库开启，等待节后印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-30 04:47