LLDPE：趋势偏弱

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "Trend Weak" [1] Core View - Considering factors such as continuous commissioning of new production capacity, low maintenance volume, weak demand, and cost - side pressure, the polyethylene trend still faces pressure [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7122, with a daily decline of 0.60%, trading volume of 261,574, and an increase of 8592 in positions [1] - Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was 218 yesterday (compared to 186 the day before), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 66 yesterday (compared to 63 the day before) [1] - Spot prices: In the North China region, it was 7340 yuan/ton yesterday (7350 the day before); in the East China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton yesterday (7380 the day before); in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton yesterday (7600 the day before) [1] Spot News - The LLDPE market price adjusted weakly, with a price fluctuation range of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. The futures opened lower and fluctuated weakly, dampening market trading sentiment. Most petrochemical ex - factory prices were stable at the end of the month, and most traders had completed their monthly quotas, with quoted prices fluctuating slightly. Downstream buyers made small - order replenishments to maintain production, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro aspect: The trade war is difficult to end in the short term. Polyethylene faces negative feedback, and the market still tends to short polyethylene profits in the later stage [2] - Impact of US tariff hikes: In 2024, the value of Chinese plastic products exported to the US accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and the proportion has been declining in recent years. After the US tariff hikes, the decline trend of Chinese plastic product exports to the US may become more obvious [2] - Supply - demand situation: In the 09 contract of 2025, the new domestic PE production capacity is expected to be 2.55 million tons, with relatively high supply pressure. The maintenance volume from May to June is less than that in April, which is insufficient to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, affected by the trade war, the peak season for agricultural films has passed, and the demand will continue to decline. The demand for packaging films is average. Although downstream factories have phased low - price replenishment, the continuous replenishment intensity is insufficient, making it difficult to achieve significant polyethylene destocking and form positive feedback [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [3]