国信证券晨会纪要-20250430

Macro and Strategy - The economic development in Shenzhen for Q1 2025 shows a stable growth with a GDP increase of 5.2% year-on-year, although external trade faced pressure with a decline in exports and a rise in imports [11] - Fixed asset investment has decreased due to the impact of real estate development, but it remains higher than the provincial average [11] - Consumer retail has seen a notable increase of 3.1% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting consumption [11] Industry and Company Internet Industry - The investment strategy for May 2025 indicates that major US internet companies are entering their earnings period, which may lead to a rebound in stock prices [20] - In April, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 7.6%, while the Nasdaq Internet Index rose by 1.7% [20] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased, with a PE-TTM of 20.90x, while the Nasdaq Index slightly declined to a PE-TTM of 36.93x [20] Automotive Industry - In March 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [23] - The Shanghai Auto Show saw a significant release of new models, with a focus on smart assisted driving regulations [22] - The investment outlook remains positive for electric and smart vehicles, with recommendations for companies like Li Auto and Xpeng Motors [25] Chemical Industry - The fluorochemical industry observed a price increase in refrigerants, with R32 prices rising to 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1,000 yuan increase from the previous month [26][27] - The overall production of air conditioning units is expected to grow, driven by seasonal demand and government subsidies [27] - The industry is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance for refrigerants, particularly R22 and R32, leading to potential price increases [27] Transportation Industry - The aviation sector anticipates an 8% year-on-year increase in passenger transport volume during the May Day holiday, with a projected 10.75 million passengers [28][30] - Oil shipping rates have stabilized, with VLCC rates increasing due to OPEC+ discussions on oil production [28] - The domestic airline market is expected to see improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics continue to optimize [30] Financial Sector - Ningbo Bank reported a decrease in non-performing loan generation rates, indicating improved asset quality [3] - Jiangsu Bank showed strong net interest margin performance, maintaining high growth in scale [3] - The financial sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with investment income showing significant growth [9]