中辉期货日刊-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PTR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production expansion, and cost fluctuations, with most varieties showing weak or bearish trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Condition: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down 2.63%, Brent down 2.33%, and domestic SC down 1.23% [3]. - Basic Logic: Trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production expansion lead to weak oil prices, but the approaching trading season strengthens short - term support. Supply and demand factors and inventory changes also affect the market [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, and the price fluctuates between $55 - 65. In the short - term, the price is below the 5 - day moving average, and it's recommended to hold light positions or buy options to hedge risks during the May Day holiday. SC focuses on [470 - 485] [5]. LPG - Market Condition: On April 29, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [7]. - Basic Logic: Affected by tariff policies, the import cost of propane rises, but the continuous decline in oil prices drags down the cost, resulting in a weak trend. There are changes in factors such as warehouse receipts, cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the cost support is weak, and the trend mainly follows oil prices. Technically, it's below the 5 - day moving average. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. PG focuses on [4350 - 4420] [9]. L - Market Condition: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - Basic Logic: The supply side has new production capacity, and some import windows are open or about to open. The demand side is at the end of the seasonal peak for agricultural films. The cost of crude oil falls, and the fundamentals are weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Go short on rallies. L focuses on [7030 - 7200] [12]. PP - Market Condition: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - Basic Logic: The cost support weakens, the warehouse receipts decline, and the supply - demand is weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - term. PP focuses on [7030 - 7150] [15]. PVC - Market Condition: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - Basic Logic: As the delivery month approaches, the main contract shifts positions, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side has seasonal changes. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks. V focuses on [4880 - 5020] [18]. PX - Market Condition: On April 25, the spot price in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64) [19]. - Basic Logic: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side maintenance is high. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production expansion, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory lead to a weakening trend [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX focuses on [6150 - 6250] [20]. PTA - Market Condition: On April 25, the PTA price in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - Basic Logic: The high volume of PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory decreases, and the cost support is limited. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: TA focuses on [4360 - 4460] [24]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Condition: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19) [25]. - Basic Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, the arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is high. The cost support is weak, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG focuses on [4160 - 4220] [27]. Glass - Market Condition: The spot market price was stable, the futures was weakly volatile, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - Basic Logic: Macroeconomic sentiment is cautious due to the trade war and lack of incremental policies. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand has seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period. The upstream inventory accumulates again, and the short - term rebound is suppressed [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG focuses on [1080 - 1120] [30]. Soda Ash - Market Condition: The heavy - soda ash spot price was raised, the futures was slightly bullish, the basis narrowed, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased [31]. - Basic Logic: The planned maintenance of soda ash enterprises in May may reduce supply, but the over - capacity remains. The downstream demand changes little, and the inventory is still high. The market sentiment warms up, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the medium - term upward drive is lacking [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA focuses on [1335 - 1380] [32]. Methanol - Market Condition: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1) [34]. - Basic Logic: Although the device maintenance reduces the load, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the arrival expectation is likely to be fulfilled. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory decreases slightly, and the cost support is weak. It's recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA focuses on [2255 - 2285] [35].