光大期货能化商品日报-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - Fuel Oil: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - Asphalt: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - Polyester: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - Rubber: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - Methanol: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - Polyolefins: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - Di Yilin: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - Peng Haibo: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].