Research Ratings for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market declined yesterday. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume decreased. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar has improved, the impact of tariff policies on steel exports will gradually emerge, and the decline in cold - rolled demand may spread to hot - rolled products. There are also rumors about crude steel production cuts, which affect market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main iron ore futures contract declined yesterday. Supply has increased significantly, while demand, represented by hot metal production, has also risen. With the increase in port and steel mill inventories, and under the influence of long - and short - term factors, the iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to information related to crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market declined yesterday. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation for the May Day holiday has been completed. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and spot purchases are scarce. Although the operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises has slightly increased, their coking coal inventory is sufficient. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more support policies may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market declined yesterday. The production of coking enterprises in the main production areas is normal, and the supply is relatively loose. The steel billet price has dropped, which has put pressure on raw material prices. Although steel mills have a good demand for coke, their profit margins are limited, so they are cautious about coke prices. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more policy support may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore has remained stable recently. It is expected that the silicon manganese futures price will be weak and fluctuate in the short term [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The production profit is still in the red, and the production decline has narrowed. The downstream steel procurement price is falling, and the demand support is limited. The cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 15,300 lots in positions. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The current supply - demand situation has improved, but there are potential negative factors such as tariff policies and production cut rumors [1]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 was 709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply has increased, and the demand has also risen. The inventory at ports and steel mills has increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 4,849 lots in positions. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation is completed. Traders are on the sidelines [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. The production of coking enterprises is normal, and the supply is loose. Steel mills are cautious about prices [1]. - Silicon Manganese: The main silicon manganese futures contract was reported at 5758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day, with an increase of 15,565 lots in positions to 405,400 lots. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The main silicon iron futures contract was reported at 5608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day, with a decrease of 15,383 lots in positions. The production profit is negative, and the demand support is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 28.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 49.0, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Basis: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 120.0, an increase of 9.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 99.2, a decrease of 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Profit and Spread: The rebar futures profit was 110.7, a decrease of 22.0 from the previous day; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 110.0, an increase of 2.0 from the previous day [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Price: The report provides historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][9][10][11][14]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][22]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: It presents the historical spread charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [24][25][29][31][32][34][36]. - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread: It includes the historical spread charts of the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, and silicon manganese and silicon iron [38][39][41][43]. - 3.5 Rebar Profit: It provides the historical profit charts of rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Currently serves as the assistant director of the Research Institute of Everbright Futures and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [50]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Currently serves as the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many industry awards [50]. - Liu Xi: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - Zhang Chunjie: Currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [51].
黑色商品日报（2025年4月30日）-20250430
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 05:27