Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the "production cut" driving force has cooled down, and the disk profit has declined. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement stage. It is recommended to reduce the single - side exposure and hold a light position during the May Day holiday [4]. - For coking coal and coke, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of top - charged coke, and coking coal auctions continue to weaken. It is recommended to short coal and coke on rallies in May and hold a light position during the holiday [5]. - For ferroalloys, the production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron supply and demand are tightening, while manganese - silicon is still in an oversupply state. It is recommended that industrial customers control risks and silicon - iron can be tried to go long at low prices [7]. - For iron ore, the "small essays" dominate the disk trading logic again. It is not recommended to hold long iron ore orders under the production - limit expectation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Prices: On April 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3128 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.29%), HC2601 at 3238 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan, - 1.04%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan, - 1.21%), HC2510 at 3210 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.26%), etc. [2] - Cross - month Spreads: On April 29, RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), etc. [2] - Spreads/Ratios/Profits: On April 29, the coil - rebar spread was 110 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the rebar - ore ratio was 4.37 (down 0.03), etc. [2] Spot Market - Spot Prices: On April 29, Shanghai rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), etc. [2] Specific Commodities - Rebar: The "production cut" speculation has cooled down, prices and disk profits have declined. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Some steel mills plan to cut the coke price, coking coal auctions are weak. The fundamentals may weaken in May, and shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - Ferroalloys: The production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron is in a better fundamental state, and it is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7]. - Iron Ore: The "small essays" affect the market. High - level hot metal provides some support, but long positions are not recommended under the production - limit expectation [8].
黑色金属数据日报-20250430
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-04-30 05:37