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友邦保险(01299):NBV+13%,Margin+3pct至57.5%超预期
01299AIA(01299) 国金证券·2025-04-30 05:31

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong growth resilience, with significant new customer acquisition in tax-advantaged products in China and rapid expansion in business regions, suggesting good long-term growth potential [4]. - The company reported a 13% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) for Q1 2025, reaching 1.497billion,withamarginimprovementof3.0percentagepointsto57.51.497 billion, with a margin improvement of 3.0 percentage points to 57.5% [2]. - The company has initiated a 1.6 billion share buyback program, expected to be completed within three months [3]. Financial Performance - The NBV growth was driven by a favorable shift in product mix, with agency channel NBV increasing by 21% to 1.218billion,contributingover751.218 billion, contributing over 75% of total NBV [2]. - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% to 11% for after-tax operating profit per share from 2023 to 2026 [3]. - Insurance revenue is projected to grow from 17.514 billion in 2023 to 22.678billionby2027,reflectingayearonyeargrowthrateof7.322.678 billion by 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% to 10.3% [9][10]. Regional Performance - AIA Hong Kong reported a 16% increase in NBV, benefiting from balanced growth in local and mainland Chinese visitors [2]. - AIA Thailand experienced exceptional NBV growth due to regulatory changes that introduced personal medical insurance products, leading to strong agency channel sales [2]. - AIA Singapore saw robust NBV growth, particularly in unit-linked long-term savings products, with strong agency productivity [2]. Valuation Metrics - As of now, the company's Price to Embedded Value (PEV) stands at 1.04 times, indicating a low valuation level and suggesting long-term investment value [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.35 in 2023 to $0.79 by 2027, with a corresponding increase in Return on Equity (ROE) from 8.8% to 18.8% over the same period [9][10].