氧化铝、电解铝5月报：供应宽松，氧化铝震荡偏弱，库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强-20250430

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain weakly volatile in May, with limited upside potential, and the operating range is [2600 - 3000]. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be strongly volatile in May, and the reference operating range is [19500 - 21000] [8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is getting looser, demand growth is limited, and costs are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies [8] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile. Supply remains strong, demand is slowly recovering, and low inventories support prices [8] 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of April 25, LME aluminum first fell and then rose, down 2.52% month-on-month compared to March. SHFE aluminum mainly fluctuated after a decline, down 2.98% month-on-month compared to March. Alumina maintained a weakly volatile trend, down 2.4% month-on-month compared to March [11][15] 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - Domestic bauxite production has limited growth and supply is tight. In March, the output was 575,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 tons [19][20] - Overseas bauxite shipments have declined overall. In March, shipments from Guinea decreased by 428,000 tons month-on-month, while those from Australia increased by 164,000 tons month-on-month [24][25] - Imports have increased significantly, alleviating the tight supply situation. In March, imports were 1.64657 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 205,090 tons [28][29] - Alumina production is at a high level, and the supply side is strong. In March, production increased to 744,900 tons month-on-month [32][33] - The import window remains closed, and net imports are at a very low level. In March, the net import volume was -285,600 tons [36][37] - Raw material prices have fallen, and the costs of both alumina and electrolytic aluminum continue to decline. As of April 25, the alumina production cost dropped to 2946.3 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum production cost in March was 15,235 yuan/ton [39][40] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization remains high. In March, it rose slightly to 96.23%, and the output was 372,880 tons [44][45] - The aluminum rod operating rate continues to operate at a high level. In March, it was 58.48%, and the output was 149,600 tons [49][50] - The net export pattern of aluminum ingots continues. In March, the net import volume was -261,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.84% [54] 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - The operating rates of downstream sectors of electrolytic aluminum have increased. Aluminum profiles rose to 45.49%, aluminum rods to 60.6%, and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils to 74.4% [59] - Aluminum product exports have slowed down due to domestic and overseas policies. From January to March, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 196,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 61,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.02% [62][63] - Real estate indicators have shown narrowing declines. From January to March, the cumulative real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, the new construction area decreased by 24.4%, and the completed area decreased by 14.3% [72][73] - The automobile production - sales ratio has declined significantly. In March, the production was 3.0058 million vehicles, the sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio was 0.9699 [76][77] - Refrigerator growth has slowed down significantly, while washing machines and air conditioners have maintained growth. From January to March, refrigerator production increased by 3.7% year-on-year, washing machine production increased by 13.9%, and air conditioner production increased by 9.7% [80][81] 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - Bauxite supply is gradually easing, but port inventories remain at a very low level. As of April 25, the port inventory was 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 222,000 tons [84][85] - Alumina inventories continue to accumulate, and supply is gradually loosening. As of April 25, the inventory was 399,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.91% [88][89] - Aluminum ingot inventories continue to decline, and support continues to strengthen. As of April 28, the social inventory was 66,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 149,000 tons [92][93] - Both SHFE and LME inventories are in a state of decline. As of April 25, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 71,293 tons month-on-month, and LME inventory decreased by 40,875 tons month-on-month [97][98]