SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-30 05:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting high growth in performance for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.117 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.410 billion yuan, up 53.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 28.67%, showing a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year and a 1.14 percentage points increase quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand for excavators, with domestic sales up 38.3% year-on-year, and exports increasing by 5.49% [3]. - The overseas revenue accounted for 51.41% of total revenue in 2024, indicating successful global expansion, with higher gross margins in overseas markets compared to domestic ones [3]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with significant growth in agricultural machinery and high-altitude machinery, which helps mitigate cyclical impacts [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140.96% [3]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 10.65 days year-on-year to 240.19 days, reflecting improved operational efficiency [3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 52.104 billion yuan, 60.719 billion yuan, and 70.983 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.004 billion yuan, 6.436 billion yuan, and 7.935 billion yuan [5]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are 13, 10, and 8 times [5]. Market Trends and Strategic Initiatives - The domestic market for non-earthmoving machinery is beginning to recover, with notable increases in sales of crawler cranes and industrial vehicles [4]. - The company is actively developing emerging industries, including intelligent robotics, to enhance its product portfolio and reduce reliance on traditional sectors [4].