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潍柴动力(000338):系列点评五:2025Q1业绩超预期,发动机龙头加速转型

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 57.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 4.27% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The company is diversifying its business successfully, with a notable increase in revenue from agricultural equipment and overseas subsidiaries [3][4]. - The expansion of the old-for-new policy for heavy trucks is expected to boost domestic demand, particularly for natural gas engines [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 57.464 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.92% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.94% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 2.711 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.27% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.23%, while the net margin was 4.91% [2]. Business Development - The company is optimizing its product structure, with steady growth in engine, vehicle, smart logistics, and agricultural equipment sectors [3]. - The agricultural equipment business achieved a record revenue of 17.393 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.38% year-on-year [3]. - The overseas subsidiary KION GROUP AG reported a revenue of 11.5 billion euros in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.61% [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 231.11 billion yuan, 241.61 billion yuan, and 248.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 12.749 billion yuan, 14.226 billion yuan, and 15.445 billion yuan [4][5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.46 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.77 yuan respectively [4][5].