YILI(SH:600887) CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD·2025-04-30 06:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 115.78 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.45 billion, down 19% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a net profit of RMB 4.87 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in performance from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 10.71 billion, RMB 12.18 billion, and RMB 13.40 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 10% [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of RMB 182.37 billion and a current share price of RMB 28.79 [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 115.78 billion, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased competition and lower birth rates affecting demand [5][6]. - The Q4 2024 results showed a revenue of RMB 26.74 billion, down 7% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 2.42 billion [5]. Product Segmentation - The product mix includes liquid milk (59.98%), milk powder and dairy products (26.92%), and frozen products (12.54%) [2]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a recovery in dairy product demand, with expected revenue growth driven by improved consumer confidence and cost advantages from low raw milk prices [6][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.68, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.11, respectively [9]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 12.2 per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.24% [5].