瑞幸咖啡：开业提速，同店销售转正

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LK.O) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability in Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 8.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a GAAP operating profit of 737 million yuan, compared to a loss of 65 million yuan in the previous year [1][8] - The growth in revenue is attributed to an increase in the number of stores and improved same-store sales, with a notable increase in the average transaction value [1][8] - The company has successfully optimized its product mix, leading to a substantial improvement in gross margin, which reached 59.7%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][8] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for Luckin Coffee is expected to grow from 24.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% [2] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 3.17 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.13 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.1 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Store Expansion and User Growth - In Q1 2025, the company opened 1,757 new stores, bringing the total number of stores to 24,097, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9% in store count [1][8] - The average monthly active users reached 74.27 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively reduced its operating expenses, with the self-operated store expense ratio decreasing to 34.3%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][8] - The overall operating profit margin improved to 8.3%, up 9.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced operational efficiency and gross margin improvements [1][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capture market share despite short-term pressures from rising coffee bean prices, thanks to its stable supply chain and cost advantages [8] - The expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected to reach 3.71 billion yuan and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 4.07 billion yuan and 5.08 billion yuan [8]