Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 06:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China Petroleum [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 753.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.8 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year and up 46% quarter-on-quarter. The oil and gas sectors maintained stable operations, and emerging industries like new energy and new materials showed rapid growth, leading to stable performance that slightly exceeded expectations [7] - The upstream segment's profit increased due to higher natural gas production and sales. In Q1 2025, the operating profit from oil and gas and new energy was 46.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30 billion yuan, or 7%. The average oil price was $70 per barrel, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the domestic natural gas price was 2.29 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.1% year-on-year. The net production of oil and gas was 467 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 0.7% year-on-year [7] - The downstream refining and chemical sectors faced profit pressure, with operating profit of 5.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 27 billion yuan, or 34%. The sales segment also reported weak profitability, with an operating profit of 5 billion yuan, down 17 billion yuan, or 25% year-on-year, due to reduced market demand and lower sales volumes [3][7] - The natural gas sales segment saw a significant profit increase, with an operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.2 billion yuan, or 10% year-on-year, attributed to optimized resource procurement and sales strategies [7] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, projecting a net profit of 166.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 52%, totaling 86.8 billion yuan. The estimated dividend yield for A shares is 5.9%, and for H shares, it is 8.8% before tax [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2023A is 3,012.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 161.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.52% year-on-year increase. The EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.88 yuan per share [1][8] - For 2024A, the total revenue is expected to be 2,938 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%. The net profit is projected at 164.7 billion yuan, a 2.02% increase year-on-year, and the EPS is estimated at 0.90 yuan [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratio for A shares is projected to decrease from 9.00 in 2023A to 8.71 in 2025E, indicating an improving valuation [1][8]