恩捷股份（002812）：隔膜利润承压，有待周期回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Enjie Co., Ltd. [5] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly declined due to inventory impairment and inventory destocking, with a notable drop in both revenue and net profit for 2024 [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, down 16% year-on-year, and a net loss of 560 million yuan, a decrease of 122% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in the industry, with expectations for higher sales volumes in 2025, targeting 9 to 10 billion square meters of wet-process output [3][5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 1 billion yuan [2] - Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of 17% year-on-year, but a net profit of only 30 million yuan, down 84% year-on-year [2] Operational Analysis - The company expects to ship 6.9 billion square meters in Q4 2024, a 40% increase year-on-year, and 2.1 billion square meters in Q1 2025, a 68% increase year-on-year [3] - The average selling price in Q4 2024 was 1.2 yuan per square meter, down 50% year-on-year, with a projected average price of 1.0 yuan per square meter in Q1 2025 [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company had 1.9 billion yuan in finished goods inventory, with an inventory coefficient of 2 to 3 months, a 10% decrease from the mid-year report [4] - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of 2.6 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 33% year-on-year, with a net operating cash flow of 1.2 billion yuan, down 57% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 500 million yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 56, 34, and 22 [5] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the 5um product segment and advancements in solid-state electrolyte membranes as key areas to watch [5]