Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations despite a decline in oil prices, with a gross margin of 54.65%, up 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased natural gas prices and reduced oil costs [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit level with Brent crude oil prices projected to fluctuate between $60 and $80 per barrel [7] - Capital expenditures remain high, with a target of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, supporting steady growth in oil and gas production [7] - The company demonstrates strong cost control, with a barrel oil cost of $27.03, down 2.03% year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow remains robust, with a net cash flow of 57.274 billion yuan in Q1 2025, allowing for sustained high dividend levels [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 139.9 billion, 144.8 billion, and 149 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 9X, 8X, and 8X respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 444.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 139.927 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6] - Earnings per share are expected to be 2.94 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 51.6% [6]