Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the market has weakened, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For Treasury bonds, short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile. For precious metals, a medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices, but short - term attention should be paid to support levels and policy signals. For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. For black building materials, the prices of steel products and raw materials are under pressure, and glass and soda ash are expected to be weak. For energy chemicals, rubber prices are expected to repair, and the prices of other products are affected by supply and demand and macro factors. For agricultural products, the prices of various varieties are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors, showing different trends [4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Financial Index Futures - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.13%, while the STAR 50 Index rose 0.10%, and the North Exchange 50 Index rose 1.24% on the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1022.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro News: Xi Jinping emphasized accelerating the construction of a global - influential scientific and technological innovation high - ground during his inspection in Shanghai. The US March merchandise trade deficit hit a record high. The financing amount increased by 1.204 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.5410%. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy IM index futures long on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, the TL main contract rose 0.69%, the T main contract rose 0.23%, the TF main contract rose 0.13%, and the TS main contract rose 0.01% [5]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission added and issued 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds to local areas. The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was 3.11%. The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue 71 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds on May 9 [5]. - Strategy: Short - term interest rates are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the release of liquidity by structural policy tools. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be introduced according to mid - term macro - situation changes [6]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold fell 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.12% to 8226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.21% to 3326.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.15% to 33.19 US dollars/ounce [7]. - Fundamentals: US economic data weakened, and consumer confidence hit the lowest level since May 2020. Trump's attitude towards tariffs is tough, and the short - term risk of US tariffs is unlikely to ease significantly [7][8]. - Strategy: A medium - term long - term view should be maintained for gold and silver prices. For gold, pay attention to the support at 747 yuan/gram, and the reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 747 - 808 yuan/gram. For silver, wait for the Fed's clear loose policy signal, and the reference range for the Shanghai silver main contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [8]. 2. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Performance: LME copper rose 0.44% to 9446 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77740 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 202500 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio rose to 35.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but consumption is weakening, and macro - sentiment is volatile [10]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 9300 - 9550 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum rose 1.42% to 2470 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20040 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 0.2 million hands to 524000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.2 million tons to 70000 tons [11]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity growth is limited, and inventory is declining, but the short - term sentiment is not optimistic [11]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with the domestic main contract reference range of 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 2420 - 2500 US dollars/ton [11]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals - Zinc: Zinc ore inventory increased, and the price may decline due to the expected increase in social inventory. - Lead: The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 17800 in the medium - term. - Nickel: The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. - Tin: Supply is expected to ease, and the price center may move down. - Carbonate Lithium: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Alumina: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to oversupply. - Stainless Steel: The price may be under pressure due to supply - demand contradictions [12][13][14][16][17][18][19]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Performance: The rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.83% to 3210 yuan/ton [21]. - Fundamentals: The "Two New" and "Two Important" policies may support demand, but there are concerns about long - term demand and international trade. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [22]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariffs, terminal demand, and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.21% to 709 yuan/ton [23]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand may peak. There are rumors of crude steel production cuts [24]. - Outlook: The raw material is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of production cuts [24]. Other Black Building Materials - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass is expected to be weakly volatile, and soda ash is expected to be weak in the short - term. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices are expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to buy on the left side. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [25][26][30]. 4. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Performance: The decline in rubber prices has released risks. - Fundamentals: There are differences between the long - and short - term views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 is declining, and inventory is high [34][35]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral - long view in the short - term, with short - term operations and attention to the RU2601 - RU2509 spread [37]. Other Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price fell, and it is considered that there is a high probability of OPEC increasing production due to Kazakhstan's over - quota production [38]. - Methanol: It is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected increase in supply and weakening demand [39]. - Urea: It is suitable for long - position allocation on dips, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread [40]. - Styrene: It is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to risks during the holiday [41]. - PVC: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it depends on maintenance and exports for further inventory reduction [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is expected to be weakly volatile due to supply - demand and tariff impacts [44]. - PTA and PX: They are expected to follow the crude oil trend and are affected by negative feedback in the industrial chain [45][47]. - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: The prices are expected to decline due to supply and demand factors [48][49]. 5. Agricultural Products Livestock and Poultry Products - Pigs: The short - term price is stable, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [51]. - Eggs: The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies after rebounds [52]. Oilseeds and Meals - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The future inventory of soybean meal and soybeans is expected to increase, and the price is affected by supply, demand, and tariffs [53]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term price is affected by trade wars, and the medium - term is expected to be stable and bullish [54]. Oils - Fundamentals: Malaysian palm oil production and exports are increasing, and the US soybean oil demand may be boosted. - Outlook: The price may be weak in the short - term and may be supported in the medium - term if the macro - situation stabilizes [55][56]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [57]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, and the short - term domestic sugar price is affected by drought and imports [57][58]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to be volatile [58]. Cotton - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell, and the spot price also declined slightly [59]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton planting progress is smooth, and the domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [59]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and inventory changes [59].
五矿期货文字早评-20250430
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-04-30 06:42