宁证期货今日早评-20250430

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus has shifted back to the US economic fundamentals and the Fed's interest - rate cut process, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Different commodities have varying market trends and outlooks, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical situations [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Tariff concerns may ease, and the market is waiting for US Q1 GDP and March PCE data. Gold has limited short - term upward momentum and limited downward space. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is advisable [2]. 烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - Currently, caustic soda plants are operating at a high level, and enterprise inventories are decreasing decreasing decreasing decreasing. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong liquid alkali market has abundant supply, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak, with resistance at the 2455 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Iron Ore - From April 21 - 27, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore market has both supply and demand increasing, with support at the bottom. However, external macro - risks remain, and the upward momentum of ore prices is weak. Short - term ore prices are expected to be oscillatory. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the 2509 contract before the holiday [4]. Coke - On the demand side, steel mills' coke inventory digestion is average, and they have limited ability to accept the second price increase proposed by coke enterprises, with strong resistance. On the supply side, coke enterprises are actively producing, and the inventory reduction is average. The market's outlook is unclear, and short - term market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing [4]. Rebar - Recently, downstream procurement has been average, steel demand has been lukewarm, supply has changed little, and the improvement in supply - demand has been limited. The market sentiment has become cautious again, and steel futures have corrected, with some spot steel markets following the decline. Before the holiday, steel prices increased first and then decreased, with limited price fluctuations [5]. Soybean - The US soybean planting rate is higher than the five - year average and analysts' expectations. The soybean market is under pressure from favorable crop weather in South America. Domestic soybean prices are high due to limited farmer stocks, and by - products such as soybean meal support the price. Short - term price increases are curbed by auctions. It is recommended to enter the market by buying at low prices [5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil production is continuously increasing, lacking positive news, and following the trend of competing oils. The spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the basis is weakly declining, and the trading atmosphere is poor. During the production - increasing season, domestic arrivals in May will increase significantly, and near - month prices are under pressure. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [6]. Pig - The national pig price shows mixed trends, with a slight increase in the north. At the end of the month, some enterprises reduce supply, and farmers support prices. In the south, the sales of large - weight pigs are poor. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait for a callback to buy in the 09 contract, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Farmers can choose to hedge according to their slaughter schedules [6]. Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC+ quota. The future is a window period for US tariff negotiations, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on May 5 to decide June's production, which is expected to affect oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. PTA - PX and PTA maintenance efforts in May are still significant. Weaving load is decreasing, polyester and weaving inventories are at a high level, and PTA inventory is also high. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and there is a game between supply - side maintenance and polyester production cuts. PTA follows crude oil fluctuations under low - profit conditions. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, which will impact the bond market in terms of supply and liquidity. Although there is still an expectation of monetary easing, the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. Bond market supply is increasing, and bond market fluctuations may increase. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [9]. Rubber - Rubber is gradually entering the peak tapping season. Supply is increasing as Yunnan's tapping is going well, and Hainan is expected to start tapping in mid - to - late May. Demand is still restricted by tariffs. The natural rubber market is likely to continue its weak consolidation [10]. Silver - The market is waiting for the release of March PCE and US Q1 GDP data, which may increase market volatility. Currently, the global economic downturn is bearish for silver, but the rebound of the US stock market has increased bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the market follows the interest - rate cut expectation trend [11][12]. Methanol - The cost of coal is expected to be stable, and domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Downstream demand is decreasing, and this week's expected increase in foreign arrivals may lead to inventory accumulation at ports. The inland methanol market is weak, and the port basis is strong. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with resistance at 2290. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable, and the start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing. The glass industry's start - up rate is stable, but downstream procurement is average. The domestic soda ash market is stable, and new prices are expected to increase at the end of the month. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory and bullish, with resistance at 1360. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13].