国新国证期货早报-20250430

Report Summary Core Views - On April 29, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3286.65, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.05% to 9849.80, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.13% to 1931.94. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 343 million yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation on April 29, closing at 3775.08, down 6.54 from the previous day [1]. Variety - Specific Summaries Stock Index Futures - On April 29, A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined slightly, and the trading volume shrank slightly [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 29, the coke weighted index was weak and volatile, closing at 1556.4 yuan, down 13.4 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 927.4 yuan, down 18.0 from the previous day [1]. - After the first round of price increase for coke, the coking profit improved, and coking plants increased production actively. The steel mills' profit ratio increased, and the billet export volume increased significantly. The pig iron output increased more than expected this week, and the coke fundamentals improved marginally [1]. - The coking coal mine's operating rate increased month - on - month, the seaborne coal shipment from Reuters was still tight, and the customs clearance at the port decreased due to environmental inspections. The coking profit continued to improve, but the pre - holiday inventory replenishment was over, and coking plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The upstream coking coal mines had high inventory pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The market was concerned about the expiration and delivery of the May contract, and traders expected the delivery volume to be about 2 million tons, strengthening the view of sufficient global supply. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the long - holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on Wednesday [1]. Rubber - Affected by the decline in Southeast Asian spot quotes and the long - holiday effect, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to long - position holders closing positions to avoid holiday risks, Shanghai rubber closed slightly lower at night [2]. - Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter were 122.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. Indonesia's total exports in the first two months were 29.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans fluctuated and closed lower on Tuesday. The start of US soybeans in 2025 was basically normal. Brazil's soybean harvest was nearly over, and it exported 12.95 billion tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of April, with the daily average export volume increasing by 14% year - on - year. As of April 24, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina was 13%, lagging behind 23% in the same period last year [2]. - Domestically, the soybean meal futures were weak on Tuesday. The main M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7%. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the market expected a significant increase in the operating rate of oil mills after the holiday, and the soybean meal inventory would turn around. The domestic soybean meal market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price might be weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The hog futures price was weak and volatile on Tuesday. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42%. The slaughter rhythm of the near - end breeding side accelerated, and the market supply of hogs increased. Supported by the May Day holiday, some slaughterhouses increased their pre - holiday inventory, but the market substitutes were sufficient, and the sales of white - striped pigs in many wholesale markets were still difficult. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply capacity of hogs would increase month - on - month in the second quarter, and the market was in a pattern of loose supply. The hog futures might be weak and volatile, and short - term attention should be paid to the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the slaughter situation [3]. Palm Oil - On April 29, palm oil continued to decline. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line, with the highest price of 8208, the lowest price of 8116, and the closing price of 8120, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day [4]. - The commercial inventory of palm oil was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 40,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. The near - month purchase orders increased, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was still inverted, and the incremental consumption of palm oil did not improve significantly [4]. Shanghai Copper - On April 29, the price of the main Shanghai copper contract fluctuated slightly, and the market was relatively stable. The US tariff policy was still uncertain, and the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The mine supply was tight, the smelting processing fee decreased, the domestic consumption peak season supported the demand, the inventory trend was downward, but the medium - term demand expectation was cautious. The short - term impact of tariffs eased, but the medium - term uncertainty remained. With the approaching of the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, and the copper price continued to fluctuate widely [4]. Iron Ore - On April 29, the main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.28% and a closing price of 709 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly this period, the arrivals also increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mills' rigid demand for inventory replenishment supported the pig iron output to rise again, but the pig iron output was already at a high level, and the room for further increase was limited. The iron ore showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On April 29, the main asphalt 2506 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.53% and a closing price of 3430 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt refineries increased for three consecutive periods, the refinery processing profit was repaired, and the output was expected to increase. The shipment volume increased for two consecutive periods, and the market demand was supported. The asphalt showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 12790 yuan/ton. On April 29, the minimum basis price of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was 580 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 359 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. Logs - The 2507 log contract opened at 793.5 on Tuesday, with the lowest price of 785, the highest price of 797, and the closing price of 787, and the position decreased by 320 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803 [5]. - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, the outbound volume increased slightly, the overall demand was still weak, there was no major conflict in the supply - demand relationship, and the market was waiting for the spot price to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the import data, the downstream purchasing, and the price - holding intention of traders [6][8]. Steel - On April 29, rb2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. The terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years, and the apparent demand was lower than expected. In the context of the "Silver April" peak season with lower - than - expected demand and no new policy information, the upward driving force of steel prices was weak. It was expected that steel prices would fluctuate repeatedly in a weak pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback expectation of the black chain [8]. Alumina - On April 29, ao2509 closed at 2766 yuan/ton. The operating situation of alumina enterprises was still changing rapidly. Due to the previous centralized maintenance and production reduction, the market supply pressure was relieved, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly. The alumina had short - term support at the bottom. However, new production capacity was gradually advancing, and overseas alumina production capacity was also ready to be put into operation. There was still high supply pressure in the future, and medium - and long - term negative factors remained [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 29, al2506 closed at 19930 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range. In the past week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline rapidly, by 30,000 tons and 34,000 tons respectively, and the total inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The short - term pessimism was repaired, and the strong fundamentals supported the aluminum price to return to around 20,000 yuan. However, to further expand the industry profit of more than 3000 yuan, a stronger supply - demand gap expectation was needed. Under the shadow of the trade war, the off - season demand outlook was not optimistic [9].