欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第72期）-20250430

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As the May Day holiday approaches, EUA continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile within the range of €60 - 68, and the medium - term trend is expected to be strong [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting EUA. Positive factors include Trump signing an executive order to ease the impact of automobile tariffs, a decline in wind speed in the European continent suppressing wind power output, and Putin insisting on including the four eastern Ukrainian states in the armistice agreement. Negative factors include higher - than - normal temperatures in Europe and high solar power generation suppressing the remaining load [1]. - The EU will implement ETS2 in 2027 (covering the building and transportation sectors), and the first batch of EUA2 futures contracts will be launched for trading on May 6, 2025 [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Auction: The auction price is 63.55 euros/ton (-1.01%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.45 [1]. - Secondary Market: The EUA futures closing price is 64.85 euros/ton (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 24,900 lots (an increase of 0.14) [1]. - Futures and Spot: On April 29, 2025, the futures settlement price was 64.85 euros/ton (-0.70%), the trading volume was 24,900 lots (an increase of 0.14), the spot settlement price was 63.82 euros/ton (-0.72%), and the spot trading volume was 71 lots [3]. Strategies - Short - term: Volatile within the range of €60 - 68; Medium - term: Strong [1]