Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical situations, tariff policies, and seasonal trends across different industries. Different commodities show diverse price trends and investment outlooks, with some recommended for short - selling on rebounds, some for holding short positions, and others for cautious observation or waiting for policy changes [2][3][4] - The overall market is complex and volatile, affected by factors like the US economic data, trade policies between China and the US, and global political and economic uncertainties [2][3][20] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: International oil prices fell overnight. The market focuses on the bearish supply - demand outlook, with an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventories. It's recommended to hold low - cost bearish option combinations [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Russian fuel oil shipments increased, Singapore fuel oil inventories rose, and the supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. The gasoline cracking strength boosted low - sulfur fuel oil, but the LU 5 - month contract declined after an increase in warehouse receipts [21] - Asphalt: Some refineries in Shandong stopped production at the end of the month, and pre - holiday downstream stocking demand increased. Inventory decreased, and the price was supported to move strongly [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Overseas PG market has support from chemical demand, but domestic PDH plants are shutting down, and there is a temporary surplus of imported gas. The price is expected to oscillate [23] Metals - Precious Metals: US job vacancy data had limited impact on the market. Gold prices are supported in the long - term by the US dollar credit crisis and global uncertainties. Precious metals may fluctuate sharply this week [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: Copper prices oscillated overnight. The US GDP was revised down due to a record trade deficit. There are concerns about post - May consumption. It's recommended to hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The market sentiment improved, and inventory decreased, but the price may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range [5] - Zinc: Due to approaching holidays and high macro uncertainties, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Downstream demand was weak, and it's recommended to short on rebounds [7] - Lead: The supply - demand of lead was weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel prices declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory increased, and it's time for short - sellers to look for new entry opportunities [9] - Tin: Tin prices fell overnight. With future production resumptions, it's recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions near 265,000 - 270,000 [10] - Ferroalloys: - Manganese Silicon: Tariff policies are unstable, and the price hit a new low. Short - ore inventory increased, and it's recommended to short on rebounds [18] - Silicon Iron: Tariff policies are uncertain, and the price declined. Supply decreased, and demand weakened marginally. It's recommended to short on rebounds [19] Chemicals - Polycrystalline Silicon: The futures price continued to fall. Supply may decrease in May, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [12] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price dropped significantly. Supply from Xinjiang was stable, and the southwest recovery was slow. Demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors was weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure [13] - Urea: Daily production exceeded 200,000 tons, and the futures price fell. Demand from agriculture and industry weakened before the holiday, but it's not advisable to be overly bearish during the peak season [24] - Methanol: Coastal inventory decreased, and inland production decreased. After the holiday, supply may increase, and demand will enter the off - season [25] - Benzene Ethylene: Crude oil may fluctuate widely, and the cost is not favorable. Production is expected to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify [26] - Polypropylene & Plastic: Polyethylene demand is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish. Polypropylene supply pressure is not high, but demand is poor [27] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC prices are low. Production is recovering, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are weak, and downstream demand is poor [28] - PX & PTA: Oil prices fell, and PX and PTA prices oscillated. It's recommended to go long on the PTA - oil price spread, with the risk of polyester production cuts [29] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand is stable, and the price is at the bottom. Attention should be paid to trade policies and oil prices [30] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber prices rose due to raw material price increases and pre - holiday stocking. Bottle - chip production increased, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and production cuts [31] Building Materials - Glass: The spot price in Shahe decreased, and the futures price dropped below 1100. Inventory is expected to increase, and the price may not fall much further, pending macro - stimulus policies [32] - 20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: International oil prices fell, and Thai raw material prices rose. Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and hold cross - commodity arbitrage [33] - Soda Ash: The night - session price dropped significantly. Inventory is high, and production may decrease in May. In the short - term, it's not advisable to be overly bearish, but in the long - term, short on rebounds [34] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal decreased. After May Day, the supply pattern will change. In the short - term, pay attention to the supply pressure, and in the long - term, the futures price may be strong before supply risks are resolved [35] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. After May Day, soybean supply will increase, and palm oil is in the production season. The prices are expected to oscillate [36] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: After May Day, soybean supply will improve. The long - term supply of rapeseed meal may ease. The price is expected to oscillate [37] - Soybean No. 1: The contract decreased in position. Pay attention to the change in the supply pattern after May Day and policy changes [38] - Corn: The inventory pressure at ports decreased, but traders have different views. It's recommended to wait and see, and the futures price may oscillate downwards later [39] - Pig: The price of the September contract dropped significantly. The supply of pigs is expected to increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline in spot prices [40] - Egg: The spot price decreased, and the futures price continued to correct. After May Day, demand will weaken, and egg production will increase. A bearish view is recommended in the long - term [41] - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is dull, and domestic sales are okay, but external demand is under pressure [42] - Sugar: US sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production is uncertain. Domestic supply and demand are favorable, but the price is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple: The futures price oscillates. The spot sales are good, and attention should be paid to the new - season production [44] - Wood: The futures price is weak. Supply will decrease after May, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to remain weak [45] - Pulp: The price dropped significantly. Port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [46] Financial Products - Stock Index: A - shares oscillated narrowly, and index futures showed different trends. The market is affected by tariff policies, and the index is expected to oscillate in a range. The dividend - paying sector has investment value [47] - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures prices rose. The government issued special bonds, and the RMB exchange - rate pressure eased. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in a range [48]
综合晨报-20250430
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-04-30 07:13