Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Short-term profitability is under pressure, but overseas expansion opens new opportunities [6] - The company has a strong order backlog, which supports future revenue growth despite current performance challenges [8] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 248.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year [8] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 8.46%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total uncompleted contract amount reached 7.234 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1% compared to the end of the previous year, indicating a solid order book [8] Business Segments - Revenue from infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development for 2024 was 216.796 billion, 4.670 billion, 6.246 billion, and 6.671 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.99%, -2.21%, -5.77%, and +59.48% [8] - The company signed new contracts worth 560.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, with domestic contracts down 13.6% and overseas contracts up 33.4% [8] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 28.7 billion, 29.7 billion, and 30.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.88%, +3.70%, and +3.94% [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 4.78, 4.61, and 4.43 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]
中国中铁(601390):短期盈利承压,境外布局打开新空间