BANK OF CHINA(601988) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-30 07:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, which is an improvement of 1.4 percentage points compared to the full-year growth rate of 2024. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a decline of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year's growth rate, primarily due to an increase in the effective tax rate [2][4] - The growth in revenue is mainly attributed to a significant increase in non-interest income, which rose by 37.3% year-on-year, while net interest income fell by 4.4% [3][4] - The company's total assets as of March 2025 amounted to 35.98 trillion yuan, with a loan total of 22.61 trillion yuan and deposits of 25.61 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 2.6%, 4.7%, and 5.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - The annualized average return on total assets (ROA) is 0.66%, and the return on equity (ROE) is 9.09% [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year's full decline of 19 basis points [4] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25% as of March 2025, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 198%, down by 2.6 percentage points [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 241.6 billion yuan, 249.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [4][5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.86 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 6.7x, 6.5x, and 6.1x, and price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.60x, 0.56x, and 0.53x [4][5]