黄金周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27）：关税预期进一步放缓，金价明显回调-20250430

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices corrected due to further slowdown in tariff expectations, decline in risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking by long positions. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T + D, COMEX gold futures, and London gold spot all decreased [1]. - This week (the week of April 28), gold prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the short - term, they lack the momentum to rise further. In the long - term, factors such as US tariff pressure, policy uncertainty, and the risk of "stagflation" and economic recession will support gold prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On April 25, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 787.20 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from April 18. The price of gold T + D was 784.93 yuan/gram, down 2.27 yuan/gram. Internationally, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3330.20 dollars/ounce, down 11.10 dollars/ounce from April 17, and the price of London gold spot was 3318.76 dollars/ounce, down 8.07 dollars/ounce [4]. - The trading data shows different trends in cumulative price changes, trading volumes, and positions for different gold products [7]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) turned positive to 5.10 dollars/ounce, up 22.55 dollars/ounce from the previous Thursday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.11 yuan/gram, up 1.43 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - Last Friday, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 16.58 yuan/gram, up from 12.20 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The spread increased because overseas tariff expectations eased, causing the decline of foreign gold prices to be greater than that of domestic ones. The gold - oil ratio slightly increased, the gold - silver ratio slightly decreased, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [11]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, last week, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the holdings of the largest SPRD gold ETF were 946.27 tons, down 6.02 tons from the previous Thursday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly, up 75.86% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of April 22, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased, while the short positions increased, leading to a continuous decrease in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15678 kilograms [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - Under tariff threats, the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual interest - rate hike stance. It may lower the economic growth forecast from 1.1% to about 0.5% in the next quarterly report [19]. - The IMF downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. It also lowered the US economic growth forecast and estimated the probability of the US falling into recession in 2025 at 40% [20]. - The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 16 months. The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, but the service PMI and composite PMI were lower than expected [21]. - Trump plans to exempt some tariffs for automakers, but this does not include a 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported auto parts starting on May 3 [22]. - In March, US durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month - on - month, but capital goods orders only increased by 0.1% due to tariff concerns [23]. - In March, US existing - home sales dropped by 5.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since November 2022 [24]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On April 24, Fed Governor Waller warned that the trade war might lead to an increase in unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July. If tariffs rise, he may support interest - rate cuts. - Cleveland Fed President Hamark believes that the Fed should be patient with monetary policy in the face of high uncertainty and may take action as early as June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly during fluctuations. As the US Treasury Secretary hinted at the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, market risk appetite recovered, driving the dollar index up 0.36% to 99.58 as of last Friday [34]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the speeches of Fed officials boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to decline by 9bp to 2.02% as of last Friday [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - It is difficult for the Israeli - Palestinian sides to reach a cease - fire agreement, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain. The Israeli military continued to bomb Gaza, and Qatar's Prime Minister said that there was some progress in a new cease - fire agreement in Gaza but a complete cease - fire was hard to achieve. Russia claimed to have recaptured the Kursk region, while Ukraine refuted it [40].