HTSC·2025-04-30 08:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company in both A and H shares [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a Q1 revenue of 106.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1% despite a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 was 36.6 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 71.8% [1]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations due to effective cost control and production optimization [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 oil and gas net production reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - The average Brent crude price in Q1 was 75.0 USD per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was 72.7 USD per barrel, a decrease of 7.7% [2]. - The company managed to reduce its oil cost to 27.03 USD per barrel, a decrease of 0.56 USD year-on-year [2]. Market Conditions - The international oil prices fell significantly in April due to the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase [3]. - The report predicts Brent crude prices to average 67 USD in 2025 and 66 USD in 2026, with a long-term price floor expected to be above 60 USD per barrel [3]. Project Development - The company successfully launched 7 new projects in Q1, including significant developments in Brazil and Bohai Bay [4]. - Capital expenditures in Q1 were 27.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with exploration and development expenditures showing varied trends [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 142.5 billion, 144.1 billion, and 148.4 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 3.00, 3.03, and 3.12 RMB [5]. - The target prices for A and H shares are set at 37.50 RMB and 27.42 HKD respectively, based on a PE ratio of 12.5x for 2025 [5].