HTSC·2025-04-30 08:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 85.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) showed a robust growth of 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a 16% increase in Hong Kong and an 8% increase in mainland China when adjusted for economic assumptions [1][2][3]. - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-11% in earnings per share (EPS) from 2023 to 2026 [1]. - The Southeast Asian market, particularly Thailand and Singapore, demonstrated strong growth in NBV, driven by regulatory changes and improved agent productivity [4]. Summary by Sections New Business Value (NBV) Performance - In Q1 2025, the NBV in Hong Kong increased by 16%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth despite a high base from the previous year [3]. - In mainland China, the NBV saw a stable growth of 8% when excluding the impact of economic assumption adjustments, although it faced a decline of 7% due to a reduction in long-term investment return assumptions [2]. Market Expansion and Channel Performance - The agent channel contributed significantly to the company's NBV, with a 21% year-on-year growth, accounting for over 75% of the total NBV [1]. - The company is expanding its operations in mainland China, with new approvals to operate in provinces such as Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to USD 0.63, USD 0.70, and USD 0.78 respectively, with a target price maintained at HKD 85 based on book value and embedded value methods [5]. - The projected gross premium income for 2025 is USD 20.524 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.27% [7][22].