永兴材料（002756）：锂价下行继续拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 32.80 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company's performance is being negatively impacted by the ongoing decline in lithium prices, with Q1 2025 revenue reported at 1.789 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 22.24% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.95% [1][2] - Despite the challenges posed by falling lithium prices, the company is actively pursuing capacity expansion projects [1][2] - The report anticipates continued pressure on lithium prices in the medium to long term, influenced by the cost reductions observed in major lithium mines [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 191 million RMB, down 59.12% year-over-year, but up 163.79% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 16.84%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points year-over-year and 0.57 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully completed the mining license change for the Huashan porcelain stone mine, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons per year to 9 million tons per year [2] - Ongoing projects include the efficient mining and comprehensive utilization of 3 million tons per year of lithium ore, which has already commenced production [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the unexpected decline in lithium prices, the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 1.72, 2.41, and 3.12 RMB, representing decreases of 12.2%, 11.7%, and 9.3% respectively [4] - The report predicts the company's net profits for 2025 from special steel and lithium battery materials to be 517 million RMB and 411 million RMB, respectively [4] - The target price of 32.80 RMB is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.0 for the special steel segment and 27.9 for the lithium battery materials segment [4]