HTSC·2025-04-30 08:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.118 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 5.487 billion RMB, up 15.09% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1] - The growth is attributed to the effective utilization of the old-for-new policy in the domestic market, product innovation, and channel expansion in overseas markets, as well as deepening digital reforms that enhance operational efficiency [1][2] - The company is expected to continue consolidating its competitive advantages and steadily advance its strategic development [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the domestic market revenue grew by 7.8%, with the Casarte brand exceeding 20% growth. The introduction of the POP digital inventory model significantly boosted retail sales [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 12.6%, with notable growth in North America and emerging markets, where sales in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa grew by over 30%, 20%, and 50% respectively [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin was 25.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by digital transformation across procurement, R&D, and manufacturing [3] - The expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 9.6%, 3.1%, and 4.2% respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.115 billion RMB, 23.258 billion RMB, and 25.351 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.25, 2.48, and 2.70 RMB [4][6] - The target price for A-shares is set at 33.75 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 31.31 HKD, reflecting a premium based on historical averages [4][8]