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药明康德:应对宏观不确定性,以2025年第一季度为良好开端-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, indicating a potential return of over 15% in the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec reported strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 21.0% year-on-year to RMB 9.65 billion, and adjusted non-IFRS net profit rising by 40.0% to RMB 2.68 billion [1][2]. - The TIDES business segment experienced significant growth, with revenue soaring by 187.6% to RMB 22.4 billion, driven by expanded capacity and contributions from oral GLP-1 projects [2]. - Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, management reaffirmed its annual performance guidance, expecting a revenue growth of 10-15% and an expansion in adjusted non-IFRS net profit margin [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at RMB 42.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 11.61 billion, a growth of 9.7% [4][16]. - The company’s unfulfilled contract amount grew by 47.1% year-on-year to RMB 52.33 billion by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [1]. - The report also highlights a decrease in the P/E ratio from 16.5 in FY24A to 15.0 in FY25E, suggesting improved valuation attractiveness [4][16]. Shareholder Returns - WuXi AppTec's board proposed a series of shareholder return plans, including maintaining a 30% annual cash dividend payout ratio and a one-time special dividend of RMB 10 billion in 2025 [3]. - The total proposed dividend and buyback plan amounts to nearly RMB 60 billion, representing 62% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted from RMB 94.05 to RMB 77.22 based on DCF valuation, reflecting a downside risk of 27.7% from the current price of RMB 60.45 [5][6].