HTSC·2025-04-30 09:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][5]. Core Views - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 is RMB 1.02, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, primarily driven by rapid growth in insurance service performance [1]. - The new business value (NBV) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating stable growth, despite a 4.5% decline in new single premiums [2]. - The insurance service performance saw a significant year-on-year growth of 129%, reaching RMB 25.5 billion, attributed to improved health insurance claims and interest rate increases affecting the release of profit from participating insurance [2]. - The company expects NBV to continue growing, with a projected increase of 9.8% in 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - The company reported a total investment income of RMB 273.1 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.19% [7]. - The annualized total investment return and net investment return for Q1 2025 were 2.75% and 2.60%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4]. Sales and Distribution - The total sales force decreased by 3% to 646,000, with individual insurance sales personnel at 596,000 [3]. - The majority of the NBV is contributed by the agent channel, which accounted for 93% of the NBV in 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 3.30, reflecting a decrease of 0.8% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price based on DCF valuation is set at RMB 48 for A-shares and HKD 20 for H-shares [5].