MGI(SH:688114) HTSC·2025-04-30 08:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the domestic substitution opportunities arising from the Ministry of Commerce's ban, leveraging its technological and service advantages [1][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 30.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3.48% [1] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the gene sequencing equipment sector, with a target price set at 88.00 RMB, reflecting a 10x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [5][9] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from the gene sequencing business reached 23.48 billion RMB, showing a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in installed capacity [2] - The gross margin for the main business in 2024 was 55.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 131.43 million RMB [7] Business Segments - The gene sequencing segment achieved a domestic revenue of 16.07 billion RMB in 2024, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 63.8% in new installations [3] - The laboratory automation segment generated 2.09 billion RMB in revenue, indicating a shift towards regular research and clinical applications [2] - New business revenue reached 4.0 billion RMB, excluding pandemic-related income, with a remarkable growth of 57.1% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 36.65 billion RMB, 46.91 billion RMB, and 51.47 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an 11% downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 1.66% in 2025, improving to 6.01% by 2027 [7]