硅铁市场周报：关税扰动情绪偏弱，需求不足厂家减产-20250430

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon ferroalloy market is affected by multiple factors, with supply decreasing due to increased maintenance by manufacturers, while demand remains weak overall. The cost of electricity provides some support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to treat the silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract as a fluctuating market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro - aspect: Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, with the new import tariff cost borne by US customers. The steel industry is facing a consensus on production cuts, and the coal industry is required to regulate import order. The World Bank predicts a decline in global commodity prices in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - Supply and demand: The ferroalloy production profit is negative, and the iron - water output continues to rise. The demand for steel is generally weak. The April HeSteel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender quantity decreased compared to the previous round [6]. - Cost: The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable [6]. - Technical analysis: The weekly K - line of silicon ferroalloy 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: Treat the silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract as a fluctuating market [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: The open interest decreased by 22,700 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 26. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3,267, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 80 yuan/ton [8][12][16]. - Spot market: The basis increased by 70 [19]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 1.48% to 30.91%, and the daily average output decreased by 200 tons to 14,140 tons. The national silicon ferroalloy production (weekly supply) was 98,900 tons [26]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 11.82% to 83,600 tons [30]. - Upstream: The electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained flat at 0.42 yuan/kWh, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke medium - sized material remained flat at 665 yuan/ton [36]. - Production profit: The spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5,620 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [41]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 42,300 tons to 2,443,500 tons. The silicon ferroalloy export volume from January to February 2025 decreased by 26.65% compared to the same period last year [45].