Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 09:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Junan Securities [4] Core Views - Guotai Junan reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 11.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 391.8% year-on-year [4] - The company is positioned to become a leading international investment bank, driven by the merger with Haitong Securities and the resulting business scale advantages [4][6] - The report anticipates a long-term improvement in ROE due to resource synergies from the merger, despite a short-term decrease in operating leverage [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the expected revenue is 48.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.70% [5] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 21.28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 63% [5] - The report projects a decrease in net profit for 2026 to 17.81 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 22.95 billion yuan in 2027 [5][7] Business Performance - All business lines showed year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with brokerage revenue increasing by 77% and investment banking revenue by 10% [6] - Guotai Junan's market share in IPO underwriting reached 15.4%, significantly higher than its closest competitor [6] - The company achieved a significant increase in client funds in its brokerage business, with a year-on-year growth of 71% in average daily trading volume [6]