Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-30 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, adopt a bullish strategy. This week, corn futures closed higher with the 2507 contract at 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The Sino-US tariff dispute and domestic factors like reduced supply and wheat concerns are positive for corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10]. - For corn starch, also take a bullish strategy. This week, Dalian corn starch futures rebounded with the 2507 contract at 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week. Although supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, demand is weak, and inventory remains high [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Corn - Strategy: Adopt a bullish strategy [9] - Market Review: This week, corn futures closed higher. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [10] - Market Outlook: The Sino - US tariff dispute benefits domestic corn prices. In the Northeast, less grain is available, and traders are holding prices. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, there is little remaining grain, and the wheat drought boosts corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10] - Corn Starch - Strategy: Adopt a bullish strategy [13] - Market Review: Dalian corn starch futures rebounded. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week [14] - Market Outlook: Supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, but demand is weak, and inventory remains high. As of April 23, the inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn futures' July contract rebounded with a total position of 1490492 hands, up 112988 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' July contract also rebounded with a total position of 227589 hands, up 3156 hands from last week [20] - Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 206482, an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 10338, a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [29] - Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 168663, and that of corn starch were 8450 [35] - Spot Price and Basis - As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot price was - 70 yuan/ton. Corn starch prices in Jilin and Shandong were relatively stable, and the basis between the July contract and Jilin's spot price was - 48 yuan/ton [40][44] - Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 15 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 68 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period [50] - Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the July contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong's corn and corn starch was 450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [59] - Substitute Spread - As of April 29, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 149.32 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 266 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton from last week [63] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the domestic and foreign trade inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the four northern ports also decreased, with a decrease in the shipping volume [54] - Grain Sales Progress: As of April 24, the grain sales progress of 13 provinces was 95%, 5% faster than last year, and that of 7 major producing provinces was 94%, also 5% faster than last year [67] - Monthly Imports: In March 2025, the import of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a 95.32% decrease from the same period last year and the same as last month [71] - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of April 24, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 35.74 days, up 0.20 days from last week [75] - Corn - Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million, a decrease of 27 million from last month [79] - Breeding Profit: As of April 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 100.16 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 53.62 yuan/head [83] - Processing Profit: As of April 29, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 91 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan, Jilin, and Heilongjiang was negative [88] - Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of April 30, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 6.66% [92] - Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory: From April 17 - 23, 2025, the corn processing volume and starch production increased, and the startup rate was 58.37%, up 4.43% from last week. As of April 23, the starch inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [96] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of April 30, the implied volatility of the corn 2507 contract rebounded to 12.47%, up 2.64% from last week, and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99] 3.5. Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Beidahuang, but no detailed analysis is provided [101]