Guoxin Securities·2025-04-30 09:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21][22] Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with total revenue of 753.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year but an increase of 10.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in natural gas production and sales, which contributed to the profit growth despite a decline in crude oil prices [1][4] - The company is focusing on efficient exploration and development in the oil and gas sector while accelerating the development of its renewable energy business [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 753.11 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 46.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1][7] - The oil and gas and renewable energy segments generated an operating profit of 46.09 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, with an equivalent oil production of 467.0 million barrels [2][10] - The refining and finished oil sales segments faced demand pressure, with operating profits of 4.55 billion yuan and 5.04 billion yuan, down 34.7% and 25.4% year-on-year, respectively [3][12] - The natural gas sales segment achieved an operating profit of 13.51 billion yuan, benefiting from increased sales volume and optimized procurement costs [4][17] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast, with net profits projected at 167.4 billion yuan, 170.9 billion yuan, and 173.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [21][23] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.91 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 0.95 yuan for the same years, with corresponding A-share PE ratios of 8.7, 8.5, and 8.4 [21][23]