Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-30 09:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 68.57 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 32%. The main revenue reached HKD 63.15 billion, up 36% year-over-year, with a net profit of HKD 40.77 billion, reflecting a 37% increase year-over-year and an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in trading volume, which has driven record highs in both total revenue and net profit for Q1 2025. The EBITDA profit margin improved to 78%, up 6 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the return of Chinese concept stocks and the acceleration of dual listings in Hong Kong, which is expected to sustain IPO growth in the Hong Kong market [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for the company are as follows: - 2024: HKD 22,374 million - 2025E: HKD 27,836 million - 2026E: HKD 28,802 million - 2027E: HKD 29,577 million - The expected net profit for the company is projected to be: - 2024: HKD 13,050 million - 2025E: HKD 16,421 million - 2026E: HKD 16,887 million - 2027E: HKD 17,236 million - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be HKD 12.95 for 2025E, with a net asset return rate of 29.20% [2][6]. Market Activity - The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2024 was HKD 2,427 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 144%. The southbound trading volume reached HKD 1,099 billion, up 255% year-over-year [5]. - The report notes that the number of IPOs in Q1 2025 was 17, raising HKD 18.7 billion, which is a 290% increase year-over-year [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions for Q1 2025 are as follows: - Spot trading: HKD 33.0 billion (+75% year-over-year) - Equity securities and derivatives: HKD 17.2 billion (+9% year-over-year) - Commodities: HKD 7.5 billion (+11% year-over-year) - Data and connectivity: HKD 5.5 billion (+4% year-over-year) - Company projects: HKD 5.5 billion (+5% year-over-year) [5].