Ronbay Technology(SH:688005) Soochow Securities·2025-04-30 09:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a revenue of 2.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 19.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 0.02 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year and 108.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that the performance was slightly below market expectations [8] - The company's output of ternary cathodes in Q1 2025 was approximately 25,000 tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 20%. However, shipments from the Korean factory increased by 16% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to a higher proportion of overseas shipments [8] - New business investments and a decrease in capacity utilization have put pressure on profitability. The net profit from ternary cathodes after excluding strategic business investments was 0.068 billion yuan, with a net profit per ton of 270 yuan, a decline of about 50% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company maintained good expense control, but operating cash flow was under pressure, with a cash outflow of 0.61 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 39.6% year-on-year [8] - The company expects to benefit from increased overseas customer demand, with an estimated annual output of ternary cathodes reaching 140,000 to 160,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [8] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 18.326 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.47%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 0.805 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 172.10% [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.13 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.23 based on the latest diluted share count [1][9] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in demand starting from Q2 2025, with improvements in profitability as the Korean factory's second phase enhances production efficiency and automation levels [8]