超长信用债微跟踪：信用久期的钱难赚

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report It is difficult to earn money from credit duration in the current market. The ultra - long - term credit bond market is facing challenges in both the primary and secondary markets, with adjustments in the yield, low investment cost - effectiveness, and weak trading sentiment [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Duration: Hard to Make Money 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics The ultra - long - term credit bonds are facing another adjustment. With the alleviation of "negative carry" concerns and the easing signal from the tariff policy, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has cooled down, and the yield of ultra - long - term credit bonds has continued to correct. The number of outstanding ultra - long - term credit bonds with a yield of over 2.4% has increased significantly compared to last week [2][13]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation The weekly issuance volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has reached a new high. Due to the generally low yield of long - term bonds, the cost advantage for bond - issuing entities to issue ultra - long - term bonds still exists. In the latest week, the new supply of ultra - long - term credit bonds exceeded 80 billion yuan, and the 7 - 10 - year ultra - long - term industrial bonds were the main expanding variety. The average coupon rate of ultra - long - term industrial bonds is still declining, with a reading of less than 2.2%. Due to the low coupon yield, the investment cost - effectiveness of new ultra - long - term credit bonds is slightly insufficient, and the subscription sentiment in the primary market has continued to cool down this week [3][22]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance The index of ultra - long - term credit bonds has fallen significantly. The overall bond market has corrected, and most of the mainstream bond full - price indices have declined. The adjustment range of the ultra - long - term credit bond index is relatively larger than that of other bond varieties, with a weekly decline of 0.77% for AA + credit bonds over 10 years. The trading of ultra - long - term credit bonds has become inactive again. In the latest week, the number of trading transactions of urban investment bonds over 7 years has decreased to less than 40, the lowest since February this year. The cumulative number of weekly trading transactions of ultra - long - term industrial bonds is also less than 200. The low cost - effectiveness restricts the active trading of these bonds. The average trading yield of industrial bonds over 7 years is only around 2.3%, and the space for yield enhancement is not large compared to 4 - 5 - year medium - and long - term general - credit bonds. Correspondingly, the deviation between the valuation and trading of ultra - long - term credit bonds has turned positive this week, and the sentiment of investors to buy long - duration credit bonds has remained weak. The proportion of TKN transactions of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds has further dropped to 61.1%. In terms of investor structure, public funds have started to reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 - year general - credit bonds that they have been allocating for a month, and the purchase volume of insurance companies has also fallen to a low level. The net purchase volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds by insurance companies this week is less than 1.7 billion yuan [4][29][35]. From a more microscopic perspective, the spread of ultra - long - term credit bonds shows a slight upward trend in the shock. Except for the active bonds around 20 years, the credit spreads of active long - term bonds over 7 years are maintained between 55bp - 60bp. The net price of active ultra - long - term credit bonds has continued to decline this week, and the long - term bonds under 20 years have almost given back the capital gains of this month, highlighting the embarrassment of the high - odds nature of this variety [5][43].