地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：博弈10至15年地方债价差

Group 1: Report's Core View - The local government bond market continued to expand. As of April 25, 2025, the outstanding local government bond balance reached 50.49 trillion yuan. The issuance and trading of local government bonds showed different characteristics in terms of supply rhythm, maturity structure, and investor structure [12]. Group 2: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking 1. Stock Market Overview - As of April 25, 2025, the outstanding local government bond balance reached 50.49 trillion yuan. New special-purpose bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local government bonds, and refinancing special-purpose bonds accounted for 21% [12]. - Among the outstanding bonds with clear fund uses, shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were the major investment areas, with outstanding balances all exceeding 1 trillion yuan. The outstanding balance of toll roads exceeded 870 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects exceeded 200 billion yuan [12]. - As of April 25, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked the top three in terms of outstanding local government bond balance, with each province's balance exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had outstanding balances above 2 trillion yuan [12]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 191.122 billion yuan were issued, a slight decrease from the previous week. Among them, new special - purpose bonds were worth 116.707 billion yuan, and refinancing special - purpose bonds were worth 42.921 billion yuan [19]. - In terms of the use of raised funds, "ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special - purpose bonds. The issuance scale of "replacement of implicit debt" decreased compared with the previous week. As of April 25, the issuance of special refinancing special - purpose bonds in April had reached 261.669 billion yuan, accounting for 37.74% of the monthly local government bond issuance scale [19]. - In terms of the maturity structure of issuance, last week, the issuance of local government bonds with maturities of 1 - 7 years and 7 - 10 years accounted for relatively high proportions, both exceeding 30%. The average coupon rates of local government bonds for major maturities were basically the same as the previous week. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local government bonds and the same - maturity treasury bonds narrowed to 21.22BP, and the spread of 20 - year local government bonds compared with the same - maturity treasury bonds significantly narrowed to 9.9BP [30]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the tender rate last week was basically the same as the previous week, and the primary auction sentiment remained sluggish. Newly added issuance occurred in multiple provinces last week. Hunan had the largest issuance volume of new local government bonds this month. Some provinces showed obvious maturity characteristics. Sichuan, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang had a relatively large proportion of local government bonds with maturities over 7 years, while Jiangsu, Anhui, and Beijing mainly issued bonds with maturities within 7 years. The average issuance rates in most regions were within 2%, while the average issuance rates in Sichuan and Jiangxi were above 2.3%, indicating certain allocation value [30][39]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been on a continuous downward - trending oscillation. As of last Friday, the yield of 10 - year local government bonds was 1.92%, with a spread of 25.94BP compared with the same - maturity treasury bonds, at the 88.3% high - percentile level in the past 24 years. The spread of 15 - year bonds was also above 29.05BP, and the percentile levels of price spreads were all above 96.9% [42][43]. - Last week, the turnover rate of local government bonds decreased. The turnover rates of all maturity varieties significantly declined compared with the previous week. The variety with the highest weekly turnover rate was still the one with a maturity over 10 years, with a reading of 0.98%. By region, only Jiangsu and Zhejiang had more than 100 trading transactions last week. The average maturity of local government bond transactions last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.98% [49]. - In terms of investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of local government bonds worth 56.411 billion yuan, of which the purchase of bonds with maturities of 20 - 30 years and above accounted for 53.15%. Among other institutions, only wealth management products also showed an increase in local government bond holdings, mainly in the positive purchase of bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and 20 - 30 years [54].